አዳዲስ ክስተቶች 

Note: This observation analyzes the current political affairs in Ethiopia and the stare down between OPDO, TPLF and the military.  It was posted on Dr Dereje Gerafa Tullu’s FB Page on 29 October 2017. The post is slightly edited (mostly formatting for better readability)

ዕይታ 1: ኦህዲድ ውስጥ ከዚህ በኃላ operation አካሂዶ አንዱን ጥሎ አንዱን ማንገስ እጅግ ከባድ ደረጃ ላይ ደርሷል።ከዚህ በኃላ አይቻልም ባይባልም ይህንን ኦፕሬሽን ኦህዲድ ውስጥ ከመሞከር ህወሃት ውስጥ መሞከር ይቀላል።ይህ ማለት አንድ ሁለት የኦህዲድ አመራር አባላት የማፈንገጥ ፍላጎት ወይም የተለመደውን የመላላክ አባዜ አይኖራቸውም ማለት አይደለም።አሁን ኦህዲድ ውስጥ ማፈንገጥ እጅግ አደገኛ እንደሆነ ሁሉም ተረድቷል።

በግራ ዘመም ፓርቲዎች ውስጥ ማፈንገጥ እጅግ አደገኛ መሆኑ ይታወቃል ። ሆኖም ግን በኦህዲድ ማፈንገጥ ልክ ቁርስ እንደመብላት ቀላል ነበር። ምክንያቱም ህዋሃት ለአፈንጋጮች ከፍተኛ ከለላ ሲያደርግ ስለነበረ ነው። አሁን ግን ኦህዲድ ውስጥ ማፈንገጥ የአለማችን እጅግ አደገኛ ውሳኔ ነው። በማግስቱ ምን ሊገጥምህ እንሚችል መተንበይ ከባድ ነው። ልክ እንደማንኛውም ግራ ዘመም ፓርቲ ማለት ነው። ልክ መለስ እያለ ህወሃት ወይም ኢህአዲግ ውስጥ ማፈንገጥ አደገኛ እንደሆነው ኦህዲድ ውስጥ በዚህን ጊዜ ማንፈገጥ እጅግ አደገኛ መሆኑ ሁሉም የኦህዲድ የላይኛው አመራር ገብቶታል።እንዲሁም ከዚያም በላይ አደገኛ ሊሆን ይችላል።ከውስጥ እስከ ውጭ ለድርጅቱ ፕረዚዳንት እና አመራር ድጋፍ እየጎረፈ ባለበት ሰዓት የላይኛው የኦህዲድ አመራር ቢያፈነግጥ አባላቱ ወግረው የሚገሉት ይመስለኛል።

በአጠቃላይ በአሁኑ ጊዜ ኦህዲድ ውስጥ የድርጅቱ አመራር በመፍራትም ይሁን በማመን አሰላለፉን አሳተካክሏል ። ቀጥ ብሎ ተሰልፏል። ከሰሞኑ ማዕከላዊ ኮሚቴ ስብሰባም ከውሳኔዎቹ በላይ ግልፅ ሆኖ የታየው ይሄው የአሰላለፍ ወጥነት ነው። ይህ ለአቶ ለማ እና ለዶ/ር አቢይ ዳገት ላይ ውሃ እንደማግኘት ይቆጠራል።እነሱን ለማንገላታት ለሚያስቡት ደግሞ የበጋ መብረቅ ነው። ከመቻል ውጭ ምንም ማድረግ አይቻልም።

 

ዕይታ 2: በኢትዮጵያ ፓርላማ ውስጥ ከእንግዲህ ኦህዲድ እና ብአዴን ያልፈለጉትን ማስወሰን ከባድ ነው። ሁለቱ ፓርቲዎች መደጋገፋቸው አይቀርም ። ይህ ማለት እነሱም የሚፈልጉትን በሚፈልጉበት ሰዓት ማድረግ ይችላሉ ማለት አይደለም። አንደኛ የጋራ ፍላጎታቸውን ደፍረው እና ተወያይተው ማግኘት ደረጃ ላይ የደረሱም አይመስለኝም። ሁለተኛ የሚወስኑት ውሳኔ ላይ የድምፅ የበላይነት ማግኘት ብቻም ሳይሆን ሌሎች ነባራዊ ሁኔታዎችን ከግንዛቤ ውስጥ ማስገባታቸው አይቀርም። የድምፅ የበላይነት ስላላቸው ብቻ ውሳኔአቸው አደገኛ ውጤት የሚኖረው ከሆነ አይወስኑም።

አንድ ነገር ግን እርግጠኛ ሆኖ መናገር ይቻላል። ሁለቱ ፓርቲዎች በዚህን ጊዜ በህልውናቸው ላይ የተቃጣ ነገር ቢመጣ ተባብረው ውድቅ እንደሚያረጉት ምንም ጥያቄ የለውም። ስለዚህ የአስቸኳይ ጊዜ አዋጅም በዚሁ መልኩ የሚታይ ነው። አሁን ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ የአስቸኳይ ጊዜ አዋጅ ዳግም ለማወጅ እንደተለመደው ህወሃት ብቻ መፈለግ በቂ አይደለም። ወይ ኦህዲድ አልያም ቤአዲንም መፈለግ መቻል አለበት።

ስለዚህ አስቸኳይ ጊዜ አዋጅ በሀገሪቷ ታውጆ ስልጣን ዳግም በወታደሩ ስር በቀጥታ እንዲገባ የሚፈልግ አካል ከሁለቱ ፓርቲዎች አንዱን በሚያሳምን መልኩ ቀውስ መፍጠር መቻል አለበት። ከነዚህ መካከል ለምሳሌ ያህል ኦሮሚያ ውስጥ የብሄር ግጭትን ማፋፋም አንዱ እና ቀላሉ ነው። የብሄር ግጭት ኦሮሚያ ውስጥ ከተፋፋመ በሁሉም ዘንድ ድንጋጤ መፍጠሩ ስለማይቀር ፓርቲዎቹ ወደዚያ መሄዳቸው አይቀርም።

እኔ በጣም ተደጋጋሚ መረጃዎች ቢመጡልኝም የኢህአዲግ አባል ፓርቲዎች እዚህ የእብደት ስራ ውስጥ ዘለው ይገባሉ ወይ የሚለው ህልም እየሆነብኝ ነው። ምክንያቱም የብሄር ግጭትን ስትፈልግ አስነስተህ ስትፈልግ የምታቆመው መኪና አይደለም። መቀስቀሱ ቀላል ቢሆንም ማቆሙ ግን ከባድ ነው። ለማንኛውም የብሄር ግጭት የኢህአዲግ አባል ፓርቲዎች መቀስቀስ ይፈልጋሉ ካልን ሊፈልግ የሚችለው ከአስቸኳይ አዋጁ አትራፊ ሊሆን የሚችለው ድርጅት ብቻ ነው።

ዕይታ 3: ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ መፈንቅለ መንግስት ማድረግ ይቻላል ወይ?
የኢትዮጵያ መከላከያ ሰራዊት አወቃቀሩ እንደምናስበው ቀላል አይደለም። ከዚህ በፊት እኔም ይህንን ባለመረዳቴ ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ መፈንቅለ መንግስት ማድረግ ይቻላል ብዬ አምን ነበር። አሁን ግን ያ እምነቴ በቦታው ላይ የለም።ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ መፈንቅለ መንግስት ለመሞከር የሚያስብ ሊኖር ይችላል። ያ ሙከራ ግን እጅግ አደገኛ እና ልክ እንደ አጥፍቶ መጥፋት የሚቆጠር ነው። እንዲሁም ሳያጠፉ መጥፋት ልትሉትም ትችላላችሁ። የዘርፉ ባለሙያዎች ለዚህ ሁለት ምክንያቶች ያስቀምጣሉ።

ምክንያት 1: በብሄር በተከፋፈለችው ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ወታደሩም በብሄር የተከፋፈለ ነው። ይህ ወታደር ደግሞ አደረጃጀቱ ብዙዎቻችን እንደምናስበው ሳይሆን የላይኛው (የክፍለ እዝ እና የክፈለ ጦር ) አመራር አንድ ብሄር የበዛበት ቢሆንም የታችኛው አመራር ደግሞ (ሻንበል እና ሻላቃ እና ከዚያ በታች ያለው አመራር ) ደግሞ ከላይኛው አመራር እጅግ የተለየ እና ከሞላ ጎደል ሰራውቱን ይመስላል። ስለዚህ አሁን ባለችው ኢትዮጵያ ወታደሩ ተስማምቶ መፈንቀል መንግስት ለማድረግ የላይኛውን እና የታችኛውን አመራር የሚያስማማ የጋራ አጀንዳ ሊኖረው ይገባል። ያ ደግሞ ቀላል አይደለም። ያ ቢኖር መጀመሪያውኑ መፈንቅለ መንግስት አያስፈልግም ነበር።

የላይኛውን እና የታችኛውን የወታደሩን አመራር የሚያስማማ የጋራ አጀንዳ ቢኖር የኢህአዲግ አባል ፓርቲዎችም አይጣሉም ነበር። መፈንቅለ መንግስት የሚባል ነገርም አይኖርም ነበር። በአጭሩ የፖለቲከኞቹ ልዩነት እራሱ በዋናነት የወታደሩ ቤት ውስጥ ይህ የታችኛው እና የላይኛው ክፍል አለመመሳሳል እንዴት ይመሳሰል የሚል እና የወታደሩ የላይኛው ክፍል ባልተለመደ መልኩ አላስፈላጊ (በሉ ደግሞ አላስፈላጊ ስራ ምንድነው ብላችሁ ጨቅጭቁኝ አሉ።ለማንኛውም መልሴ ከወዲሁ አላውቅም መሆኑን እገልፃለሁ።) ስራ ውስጥ ገብቷል የሚል ነው። ስለዚህ ወታደሩ ቤት መፈንቅለ መንግስት መሞከር ሳይሆን ማሰብ እራሱ ወታደሩን ከማባላት በምንም አይለይም ይባላል።

ምክንያት 2: በፌደራል ስርዓት በምትተዳደር ሀገር መፈንቅለ መንግስት ማካሄድ ከባድ ነው። ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ደግሞ እጅግ ከባድ ነው። መፈንቅለ መንግስት ለማካሄድ ብዙ መንግስታትን መፈንቀል አለብህ ። ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ጄነራሎቹ ለራሳቸው መንገስ ሳይሆን የኢህአዲግ አባል ድርጅቶች ውስጥ ኦፕሬሽን ማካሄድ እና የሚፈልጉትን ማንገስ ይችላሉ። ይህ እጅግ ቀላል የሚሆነው እና ውጤቱም አመርቂ ሊሆን የሚችለው ህወሃት ውስጥ ነው። ሌሎች ድርጅቶች ውስጥ አይቻልም ባይባልም ከባድ እና ውጤቱም አደገኛ ነው። ለምሳሌ ኦህዲድ ውስጥ በአሁኑ ጊዜ ይህንን ማሰብ ከባድም አደገኛም ነው። ኦህዲድ ውስጥ ጄነራሎቹ ማድረግ የሚችሉት አሁን እያደረጉ እንዳለው የኦህዲድን አመራር መቅኖ በመከልከል ማዳከም ነው። ከዚያ በረጅም ጊዜ ማንበርከክ ነው። ይህንን ማድረግ ከቻሉ ለአጭር ጊዜም ቢሆን የሚፈልትጉን ማድረግ ይችላሉ።የረጅም ጊዜ ውጤቱ ግን ያው መጥፎ ነው።

ሌላው ጄነራሎቹ ኦህዲድ ውስጥ ሊያደርጉት የሚችሉት የኦህዲድን አመራር ማስወገድ ነው። ይህ በተደጋጋሚ እየተወራ ነው። ይህም ውጤቱ እጅግ አደገኛ ነው። ያንን ባደረጉ በማግስቱ ሁሉም ይቃጠላል። አሁን ችግሩ ጄነራሎቹ በዚህ መልኩ ያስባሉ ወይስ የሆነ ትምክህተኛ ነገሮች ናቸው የሚለው ነው። እኔ አላውቅም። ባውቅም ይህንን ያህል አልዳፈርም።

በኔ አመለካከት ጄነራሎቹ ለኢትዮጵያ ውለታ ዋሉላት የሚባለው እራሳቸውን ከፖለቲካው አርቀው ዳርድንበሯን ብቻ በማስጠበቅ ላይ ቢያተኩሩ ነው። የውስጥ ፀጥታውን ፖሊስ እንዲሰራው ማድረግ ወሳኝ ነው። ይህ ግን እንደማይሆን አውቃለሁ።

ዕይታ 4: የብአዴን ፈተና!
ከኦህዲድ ጋር ሲነፃፀር ብአዴን አንድ ፈተና አላበት። የብአዴን የላይኛው አመራር በደንብ የተዋሃደ አይመስለኝም። ለምሳሌ ኦህዲድ ውስጥ የድርጅቱ ነባር ታጋዮች ወይ ሀገር ውስጥ የሉም ወይም ከአዲሱ አመራር ጋር ተዋህደዋል። ለዚህ ጥሩ ምሳሌ የኦህዲድ የጡት አባት የሚባሉት አቶ አባዱላ ከድርጅቱ ሊቀመንበር እና ከድርጅቱ የማዕከላዊ ኮሚቴ ፅህፈት ቤት ኃላፊ ጋር ወተት እና ቅቤ ናቸው። ዝም ከተባለ ይረጋል። ከተናጠም ቅቤ ይወጣዋል። የድርጅቱ ሊቀመንበር እና የክልሉ ፕረዚዳንት መሆንም እጅግ ጠቃሚ ነው።በአጠቃላይ በኦህዲድ ቤት አሁን ከሞላ ጎደል ሰላም አለ። ይህ ማለት የሆነ ጊዜ አንድ የስራ አስፈፃሚ አይባረርም ለማለት አይደለም። ሊባረር ይችላል። ማባረር እና ማፈንገጥ ግን ይለያያሉ።

ቤአዴን ውስጥ ግን የድርጅቱ ሊቀመንበር እና የድርጅቱ ፅህፈት ቤት ኃላፊ እንዲሁም የድርጅቱ የጡት አባት ወተት እና ቅቤ ደረጃ የደረሱ አይመስለኝም። የመካከለኛው እና የላይኛው አመራር መስተጋብርም ልክክ ለማለት ትንሽ ጊዜ የሚያስፈልገው ይመስለኛል። ያንን ካደረጉ ግን ብአዴን ከኦህዲድም በላይ ከባድ ድርጅት ሊሆን ይችላል።

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